NEW YORK (VINnews) — In the last few week, farmers in North and South Dakota have suffered extreme inclement weather conditions, including blizzards, high winds and heavy flooding. Consequently, the farmers have been unable to commence planting their annual crops and this delay will lead to a significant reduction in harvests in a region which is a bread basket for a large number of states. Due to the war in Ukraine, a leading world food supplier, there are already global shortages before the current weather disruptions.
Weather forecasters have warned that plantings throughout the Midwest to the Ohio valley will be delayed, with some farmers forced to wait until May due to the above average moisture and low temperatures which prevent farmers from working their fields.
BAMWX’s chief meteorologist Kirk Hinz assessed weather models for the next two weeks which depict a similar pattern of below-average temperatures and higher precipitation. The risk is that delayed plantings could extend well into the first half of May.
Normally spring is the ideal time for planting, with fertile soil from winter rains ripe for growing crops. However the current spring with its high rainfall has led to sodden fields, tractors getting stuck and a poor work environment for farmers. Cold weather damages crops in their initial growing phase and may cause significant losses to the farmers.
Given this uncertainty from the weather and how America’s food supply chain could be at risk, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) trader Tommy Grisafi (also risk advisor at commodity trading firm Advance Trading Inc)provided this warning of what’s happening on the ground:
“As I sit in my office in Mayville, North Dakota, I’m starting to wonder how the Upper Midwest farmer will get all the crops planted in a timely fashion. Below average temps are forecasted for the next ten days; combine that with above-average snow and rainfall, which only means more delayed plantings.
“Upper Midwest farmers are running out of time as prevent plant dates could soon be triggered. North Dakota’s first prevent plant date is May 25th for certain parts of the state — this will mean farmers will file a prevented planting claim on their crop insurance and not plant.”
One significant reason plantings are delayed in North Dakota is flooding.
Grisafi said, “North Dakota, Montana, and Canada are famous for growing specialty crops.”
“We often forget how these products are in everyday foods we consume. The Ukraine war was like throwing gas on an already hot fire. The drought of 2021 depleted supplies. The world is now dependent on the Northern hemisphere for major food needs. The US must grow record crops just to meet average demand. If not, this could add to the biblical food shortage coming down the pipe,” he said.
Grisafi has spent three decades on the CBOT and said fertilizer shortages plus delayed plantings suggest harvests could be severely impacted. “If only our government had a strategic fertilizer reserve,” he said.
He is in contact with hundreds of North Dakota farmers and various end-users, indicating many of these folks “will have trouble sleeping at night” because of the agricultural crisis emerging.
Grisafi’s Ag Bull podcast has recently stated, “planting delays and production problems in the US are moving markets.” The current delays and problems could have an adverse affect on food supply and may even trigger a food crisis in the US.
Source: VIN News
